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Ind. Juniors vs Atlético Vinotinto — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Ind. Juniors
Ind. Juniors
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Vinotinto
Atlético Vinotinto
M. Renteria 70'
G. Preciado 49'
J. Klinger 29'
6/18/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 14Estadio Arena CHUBB

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ind. Juniors54%
×Draw27%
Atlético Vinotinto19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ind. Juniors
1.43
Atlético Vinotinto
0.74

Ind. Juniors creates 93% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ind. Juniors
1.67
Atlético Vinotinto
0.81

allows per match

Ind. Juniors
0.67
Atlético Vinotinto
1.19

finishing

Ind. Juniors+0.00on par
Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ind. Juniors ↓

Atlético Vinotinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ind. Juniors or draw
81%
Ind. Juniors or Atlético Vinotinto
73%
Draw or Atlético Vinotinto
46%

Winning margin

Ind. Juniors wins by 2+
27%
Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ind. Juniors 1+ goals
76%
Ind. Juniors 2+ goals
42%
Ind. Juniors 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals
52%
Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals
17%
Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)
73%
Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ind. Juniors at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

Atlético Vinotinto away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ind. Juniors attack 1.67 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.43

Atlético Vinotinto attack 0.81 + Ind. Juniors defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ind. Juniors scores more
54%
level
27%
Atlético Vinotinto scores more
19%

Ind. Juniors at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ind. Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
J. Klinger
49'
G. Preciado
70'
M. Renteria
80'
Ind.
Atlético
J. Armas
Manager: J. Armas
L. Soler
Manager: L. Soler

Liga Pro Serie B: Ind. Juniors 3–0 Atlético Vinotinto

Ind. Juniors beat Atlético Vinotinto 3-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on June 18, 2025.

Goals: J. Klinger (29'), G. Preciado (49'), M. Renteria (70').

The match was played at Estadio Arena CHUBB in Quito.