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Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC — K League 1 2026

Incheon United
Incheon United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4/11/2026K League 1K League 1 · Round 7Sungui Arena Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Incheon United33%
×Draw27%
Ulsan Hyundai FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Incheon United
1.14
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.30

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 154 away

creates per match

Incheon United
1.06
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.46

allows per match

Incheon United
1.15
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.21

finishing

Incheon United+0.00on par
Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Incheon United ↓

Ulsan Hyundai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Incheon United or draw
60%
Incheon United or Ulsan Hyundai FC
73%
Draw or Ulsan Hyundai FC
67%

Winning margin

Incheon United wins by 2+
13%
Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Incheon United 1+ goals
68%
Incheon United 2+ goals
32%
Incheon United 3+ goals
11%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
73%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
37%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Incheon United (draw refunded)
45%
Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Incheon United at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Incheon United attack 1.06 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.46 + Incheon United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Incheon United scores more
33%
level
27%
Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
40%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Incheon United 1–2 Ulsan Hyundai FC

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Incheon United 2-1 in K League 1 on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Sungui Arena Park in Incheon.