Incheon United 0–1 Suwon City FC: Result & Stats

Incheon United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Suwon City FC

3/2/2024

K League 1 · Round 1Sungui Arena Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Incheon United41%

×Draw27%

Suwon City FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Incheon UnitedExpected goals in this matchSuwon City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.14

Incheon United

1.34

Suwon City FC

1.14

Incheon United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 97 away

1.06

creates per match

1.13

1.15

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Incheon United

1.06

Suwon City FC

1.13

allows per match

Incheon United

1.15

Suwon City FC

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Incheon United+0.00on par

Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Incheon United ↓

Suwon City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Incheon United or draw

68%

Incheon United or Suwon City FC

73%

Draw or Suwon City FC

59%

Winning margin

Incheon United wins by 2+

19%

Suwon City FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Incheon United 1+ goals

74%

Incheon United 2+ goals

39%

Incheon United 3+ goals

15%

Suwon City FC 1+ goals

68%

Suwon City FC 2+ goals

32%

Suwon City FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Incheon United (draw refunded)

57%

Suwon City FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Incheon United at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

Suwon City FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Incheon United attack 1.06 + Suwon City FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

Suwon City FC attack 1.13 + Incheon United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Incheon United scores more

41%

level

27%

Suwon City FC scores more

32%

Incheon United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Incheon United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff