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Incheon United vs Daegu FC — K League 1 2026

Incheon United
Incheon United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Daegu FC
Daegu FC
4/14/2024K League 1K League 1 · Round 7Sungui Arena Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Incheon United39%
×Draw28%
Daegu FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Incheon United
1.26
Daegu FC
1.15

Incheon United creates 10% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 149 away

creates per match

Incheon United
1.06
Daegu FC
1.16

allows per match

Incheon United
1.15
Daegu FC
1.46

finishing

Incheon United+0.00on par
Daegu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Incheon United ↓

Daegu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Incheon United or draw
66%
Incheon United or Daegu FC
72%
Draw or Daegu FC
61%

Winning margin

Incheon United wins by 2+
17%
Daegu FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Incheon United 1+ goals
72%
Incheon United 2+ goals
36%
Incheon United 3+ goals
13%
Daegu FC 1+ goals
68%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
32%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Incheon United (draw refunded)
54%
Daegu FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Incheon United at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

Daegu FC away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.46 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Incheon United attack 1.06 + Daegu FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Daegu FC attack 1.16 + Incheon United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Incheon United scores more
39%
level
28%
Daegu FC scores more
34%

Incheon United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Incheon United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Incheon United 1–1 Daegu FC

Incheon United and Daegu FC drew 1-1 in K League 1 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Sungui Arena Park in Incheon.