Incheon United vs Bucheon FC 1995

Incheon United

Preview

10:30

Bucheon FC 1995

7/26/2026

K League 1 · Round 20Sungui Arena Park

37%

Incheon United

model favours

37%29%34%

Both teams score in only 20% of Incheon United’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

61%

under 2.5 goals

46%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Incheon United37%

×Draw29%

Bucheon FC 199534%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Incheon UnitedExpected goals in this matchBucheon FC 1995

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.10

Incheon United

1.16

Bucheon FC 1995

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 10 away

1.11

creates per match

1.10

1.11

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Incheon United

1.11

Bucheon FC 1995

1.10

allows per match

Incheon United

1.11

Bucheon FC 1995

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Incheon United+0.00on par

Bucheon FC 1995+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Incheon United ↓

Bucheon FC 1995 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Incheon United or draw

66%

Incheon United or Bucheon FC 1995

71%

Draw or Bucheon FC 1995

63%

Winning margin

Incheon United wins by 2+

15%

Bucheon FC 1995 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Incheon United 1+ goals

69%

Incheon United 2+ goals

32%

Incheon United 3+ goals

11%

Bucheon FC 1995 1+ goals

67%

Bucheon FC 1995 2+ goals

30%

Bucheon FC 1995 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Incheon United (draw refunded)

52%

Bucheon FC 1995 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Incheon United at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 117 matches

Bucheon FC 1995 away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Incheon United attack 1.11 + Bucheon FC 1995 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bucheon FC 1995 attack 1.10 + Incheon United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Incheon United scores more

37%

level

29%

Bucheon FC 1995 scores more

34%

Incheon United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Incheon United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

United

WWLLW

1995

LDDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff