Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United — K League 1 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Bucheon FC 199535%
Incheon United37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 10 home / 120 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bucheon FC 1995 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bucheon FC 1995 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches
Incheon United away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.43 · 120 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.80 + Incheon United defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11
Incheon United attack 1.19 + Bucheon FC 1995 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Incheon United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Incheon United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Bucheon FC 1995 host Incheon United on Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 07:30. The match is part of the K League 1 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United
Bucheon FC 1995 and Incheon United drew 2-2 in K League 1 on April 18, 2026.
Goals: M. Ferrier (12'), Gerso (22'), Shin Jae-Won (64'), Vitor Gabriel (80').
Incheon United controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 14.
The match was played at Bucheon Stadium in Bucheon.