Incheon Red Angels W 0–1 Melbourne City W

Incheon Red Angels W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Melbourne City W

5/21/2025

AFC Women's Champions League · Semi-finalsWuhan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Incheon Red Angels W12%

×Draw20%

Melbourne City W69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Incheon Red Angels WExpected goals in this matchMelbourne City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

2.00

Incheon Red Angels W

0.67

Melbourne City W

2.00

Melbourne City W creates 199% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

3.67

0.33

allows per match

0.00

creates per match

Incheon Red Angels W

1.33

Melbourne City W

3.67

allows per match

Incheon Red Angels W

0.33

Melbourne City W

0.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Incheon Red Angels W+0.00on par

Melbourne City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Incheon Red Angels W ↓

Melbourne City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–114%

0–214%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Incheon Red Angels W or draw

31%

Incheon Red Angels W or Melbourne City W

80%

Draw or Melbourne City W

88%

Winning margin

Incheon Red Angels W wins by 2+

3%

Melbourne City W wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Incheon Red Angels W 1+ goals

49%

Incheon Red Angels W 2+ goals

15%

Incheon Red Angels W 3+ goals

3%

Melbourne City W 1+ goals

86%

Melbourne City W 2+ goals

59%

Melbourne City W 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Incheon Red Angels W (draw refunded)

14%

Melbourne City W (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Incheon Red Angels W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Melbourne City W away — creates 3.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Incheon Red Angels W attack 1.33 + Melbourne City W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Melbourne City W attack 3.67 + Incheon Red Angels W defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Incheon Red Angels W scores more

12%

level

20%

Melbourne City W scores more

69%

Melbourne City W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Melbourne City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff