Incheon Red Angels W vs Hwacheon KSPO W

Incheon Red Angels W

Preview

10:00

Hwacheon KSPO W

7/31/2026

WK-League · Round 18

Big match

46%

Incheon Red Angels W

model favours

46%26%28%

Incheon Red Angels W score first in only 11% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

under 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Incheon Red Angels W46%

×Draw26%

Hwacheon KSPO W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Incheon Red Angels WExpected goals in this matchHwacheon KSPO W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.12

Incheon Red Angels W

1.52

Hwacheon KSPO W

1.12

Incheon Red Angels W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 78 away

1.92

creates per match

1.49

0.75

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Incheon Red Angels W

1.92

Hwacheon KSPO W

1.49

allows per match

Incheon Red Angels W

0.75

Hwacheon KSPO W

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Incheon Red Angels W+0.00on par

Hwacheon KSPO W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Incheon Red Angels W ↓

Hwacheon KSPO W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Incheon Red Angels W or draw

72%

Incheon Red Angels W or Hwacheon KSPO W

74%

Draw or Hwacheon KSPO W

54%

Winning margin

Incheon Red Angels W wins by 2+

23%

Hwacheon KSPO W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Incheon Red Angels W 1+ goals

78%

Incheon Red Angels W 2+ goals

45%

Incheon Red Angels W 3+ goals

20%

Hwacheon KSPO W 1+ goals

67%

Hwacheon KSPO W 2+ goals

31%

Hwacheon KSPO W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Incheon Red Angels W (draw refunded)

62%

Hwacheon KSPO W (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Incheon Red Angels W at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 83 matches

Hwacheon KSPO W away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Incheon Red Angels W attack 1.92 + Hwacheon KSPO W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hwacheon KSPO W attack 1.49 + Incheon Red Angels W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Incheon Red Angels W scores more

46%

level

26%

Hwacheon KSPO W scores more

28%

Incheon Red Angels W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Incheon Red Angels W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Hwacheon KSPO W score first in only 25% of matches
Top-of-the-table clash — Incheon Red Angels W 3 vs Hwacheon KSPO W 1
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

LDWD

W

DWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff