Hwacheon KSPO W 3–1 Incheon Red Angels W

Hwacheon KSPO W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Incheon Red Angels W

6/19/2025

WK-League · Round 17Hwacheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Hwacheon KSPO W35%

×Draw26%

Incheon Red Angels W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hwacheon KSPO WExpected goals in this matchIncheon Red Angels W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.34

Hwacheon KSPO W

1.27

Incheon Red Angels W

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 80 away

1.73

creates per match

1.66

1.02

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Hwacheon KSPO W

1.73

Incheon Red Angels W

1.66

allows per match

Hwacheon KSPO W

1.02

Incheon Red Angels W

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hwacheon KSPO W+0.00on par

Incheon Red Angels W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwacheon KSPO W ↓

Incheon Red Angels W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hwacheon KSPO W or draw

62%

Hwacheon KSPO W or Incheon Red Angels W

74%

Draw or Incheon Red Angels W

65%

Winning margin

Hwacheon KSPO W wins by 2+

15%

Incheon Red Angels W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hwacheon KSPO W 1+ goals

72%

Hwacheon KSPO W 2+ goals

36%

Hwacheon KSPO W 3+ goals

14%

Incheon Red Angels W 1+ goals

74%

Incheon Red Angels W 2+ goals

39%

Incheon Red Angels W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hwacheon KSPO W (draw refunded)

48%

Incheon Red Angels W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwacheon KSPO W at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.02 · 81 matches

Incheon Red Angels W away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.80 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwacheon KSPO W attack 1.73 + Incheon Red Angels W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Incheon Red Angels W attack 1.66 + Hwacheon KSPO W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hwacheon KSPO W scores more

35%

level

26%

Incheon Red Angels W scores more

38%

Incheon Red Angels W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Incheon Red Angels W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff