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Incheon Red Angels W vs Hwacheon KSPO W — WK-League 2026

Incheon Red Angels W
Incheon Red Angels W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hwacheon KSPO W
Hwacheon KSPO W
5/16/2023WK-LeagueWK-League · Round 11Namdong Rugby Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Incheon Red Angels W46%
×Draw26%
Hwacheon KSPO W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Incheon Red Angels W
1.52
Hwacheon KSPO W
1.12

Incheon Red Angels W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 78 away

creates per match

Incheon Red Angels W
1.92
Hwacheon KSPO W
1.49

allows per match

Incheon Red Angels W
0.75
Hwacheon KSPO W
1.13

finishing

Incheon Red Angels W+0.00on par
Hwacheon KSPO W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Incheon Red Angels W ↓

Hwacheon KSPO W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Incheon Red Angels W or draw
72%
Incheon Red Angels W or Hwacheon KSPO W
74%
Draw or Hwacheon KSPO W
54%

Winning margin

Incheon Red Angels W wins by 2+
23%
Hwacheon KSPO W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Incheon Red Angels W 1+ goals
78%
Incheon Red Angels W 2+ goals
45%
Incheon Red Angels W 3+ goals
20%
Hwacheon KSPO W 1+ goals
67%
Hwacheon KSPO W 2+ goals
31%
Hwacheon KSPO W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Incheon Red Angels W (draw refunded)
62%
Hwacheon KSPO W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Incheon Red Angels W at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 83 matches

Hwacheon KSPO W away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Incheon Red Angels W attack 1.92 + Hwacheon KSPO W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hwacheon KSPO W attack 1.49 + Incheon Red Angels W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Incheon Red Angels W scores more
46%
level
26%
Hwacheon KSPO W scores more
28%

Incheon Red Angels W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Incheon Red Angels W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

WK-League: Incheon Red Angels W 2–1 Hwacheon KSPO W

Incheon Red Angels W beat Hwacheon KSPO W 2-1 in WK-League on May 16, 2023.

The match was played at Namdong Rugby Stadium in Incheon.