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Incheon Red Angels W vs Bam Khatoon W — AFC Women's Champions League 2024

Incheon Red Angels W
Incheon Red Angels Wadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bam Khatoon W
Bam Khatoon W
3/22/2025AFC Women's Champions LeagueAFC Women's Champions League · Quarter-finalsNamdong Asiad Rugby Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Incheon Red Angels W55%
×Draw27%
Bam Khatoon W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Incheon Red Angels W
1.42
Bam Khatoon W
0.67

Incheon Red Angels W creates 112% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Incheon Red Angels W
1.33
Bam Khatoon W
1.00

allows per match

Incheon Red Angels W
0.33
Bam Khatoon W
1.50

finishing

Incheon Red Angels W+0.00on par
Bam Khatoon W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Incheon Red Angels W ↓

Bam Khatoon W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Incheon Red Angels W or draw
82%
Incheon Red Angels W or Bam Khatoon W
73%
Draw or Bam Khatoon W
45%

Winning margin

Incheon Red Angels W wins by 2+
28%
Bam Khatoon W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Incheon Red Angels W 1+ goals
76%
Incheon Red Angels W 2+ goals
41%
Incheon Red Angels W 3+ goals
17%
Bam Khatoon W 1+ goals
49%
Bam Khatoon W 2+ goals
15%
Bam Khatoon W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Incheon Red Angels W (draw refunded)
76%
Bam Khatoon W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Incheon Red Angels W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Bam Khatoon W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Incheon Red Angels W attack 1.33 + Bam Khatoon W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bam Khatoon W attack 1.00 + Incheon Red Angels W defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Incheon Red Angels W scores more
55%
level
27%
Bam Khatoon W scores more
18%

Incheon Red Angels W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Incheon Red Angels W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Incheon Red Angels W vs Bam Khatoon W

Incheon Red Angels W beat Bam Khatoon W 1-0 in AFC Women's Champions League on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Namdong Asiad Rugby Stadium in Incheon.