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Înainte Modelu vs Progresul Fundulea — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Înainte Modelu
Înainte Modelu
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Progresul Fundulea
Progresul Fundulea
11/3/2023Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadionul Vasile Enache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Înainte Modelu51%
×Draw22%
Progresul Fundulea27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Înainte Modelu
1.90
Progresul Fundulea
1.32

Înainte Modelu creates 44% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 42 away

creates per match

Înainte Modelu
2.08
Progresul Fundulea
1.31

allows per match

Înainte Modelu
1.33
Progresul Fundulea
1.71

finishing

Înainte Modelu+0.00on par
Progresul Fundulea+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Înainte Modelu ↓

Progresul Fundulea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Înainte Modelu or draw
73%
Înainte Modelu or Progresul Fundulea
78%
Draw or Progresul Fundulea
49%

Winning margin

Înainte Modelu wins by 2+
29%
Progresul Fundulea wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Înainte Modelu 1+ goals
85%
Înainte Modelu 2+ goals
56%
Înainte Modelu 3+ goals
29%
Progresul Fundulea 1+ goals
73%
Progresul Fundulea 2+ goals
38%
Progresul Fundulea 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Înainte Modelu (draw refunded)
66%
Progresul Fundulea (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Înainte Modelu at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 61 matches

Progresul Fundulea away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Înainte Modelu attack 2.08 + Progresul Fundulea defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.90

Progresul Fundulea attack 1.31 + Înainte Modelu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Înainte Modelu scores more
51%
level
22%
Progresul Fundulea scores more
27%

Înainte Modelu at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Înainte Modelu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Serie 3: Înainte Modelu 4–0 Progresul Fundulea

Înainte Modelu beat Progresul Fundulea 4-0 in Liga III - Serie 3 on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Vasile Enache in Modelu.