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Înainte Modelu vs CS Afumati — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Înainte Modelu
Înainte Modelu
FT
0 – 3
CS Afumati
CS Afumati
4/14/2023Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 3Stadionul Vasile Enache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Înainte Modelu26%
×Draw21%
CS Afumati53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Înainte Modelu
1.37
CS Afumati
2.05

CS Afumati creates 50% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 35 away

creates per match

Înainte Modelu
2.08
CS Afumati
2.77

allows per match

Înainte Modelu
1.33
CS Afumati
0.66

finishing

Înainte Modelu+0.00on par
CS Afumati+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Înainte Modelu ↓

CS Afumati →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Înainte Modelu or draw
47%
Înainte Modelu or CS Afumati
79%
Draw or CS Afumati
74%

Winning margin

Înainte Modelu wins by 2+
11%
CS Afumati wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Înainte Modelu 1+ goals
75%
Înainte Modelu 2+ goals
40%
Înainte Modelu 3+ goals
16%
CS Afumati 1+ goals
87%
CS Afumati 2+ goals
61%
CS Afumati 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Înainte Modelu (draw refunded)
33%
CS Afumati (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Înainte Modelu at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 61 matches

CS Afumati away — creates 2.77, concedes 0.66 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Înainte Modelu attack 2.08 + CS Afumati defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.37

CS Afumati attack 2.77 + Înainte Modelu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Înainte Modelu scores more
26%
level
21%
CS Afumati scores more
53%

CS Afumati at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CS Afumati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Înainte Modelu vs CS Afumati

CS Afumati beat Înainte Modelu 3-0 in Liga III - Serie 3 on April 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Vasile Enache in Modelu.