IMT Novi Beograd 7–1 RFK Novi Sad: Result & Stats

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

7 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

RFK Novi Sad

5/28/2023

Prva Liga · Championship Round - 7Stadion FK Bežanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd67%

×Draw19%

RFK Novi Sad14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchRFK Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

0.86

IMT Novi Beograd

2.14

RFK Novi Sad

0.86

IMT Novi Beograd creates 149% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 23 away

1.93

creates per match

0.83

0.89

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.93

RFK Novi Sad

0.83

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

0.89

RFK Novi Sad

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

RFK Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

86%

IMT Novi Beograd or RFK Novi Sad

81%

Draw or RFK Novi Sad

33%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

42%

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

88%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

63%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

36%

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals

58%

RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals

21%

RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

83%

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.89 · 54 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.93 + RFK Novi Sad defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.14

RFK Novi Sad attack 0.83 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

67%

level

19%

RFK Novi Sad scores more

14%

IMT Novi Beograd at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff