IMT Novi Beograd 0–3 MTK Budapest: Result & Stats

IMT Novi Beograd

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

MTK Budapest

R. Polievka 87'

N. Kenesei 28'

Z. Stieber 9'

1/16/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd15%

×Draw18%

MTK Budapest66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchMTK Budapest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

2.38

IMT Novi Beograd

1.05

MTK Budapest

2.38

MTK Budapest creates 127% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

0.71

creates per match

2.90

1.86

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

0.71

MTK Budapest

2.90

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.86

MTK Budapest

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

MTK Budapest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

MTK Budapest →

0–03%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

34%

IMT Novi Beograd or MTK Budapest

82%

Draw or MTK Budapest

85%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

MTK Budapest wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

65%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

28%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

MTK Budapest 1+ goals

91%

MTK Budapest 2+ goals

68%

MTK Budapest 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

19%

MTK Budapest (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

MTK Budapest away — creates 2.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 0.71 + MTK Budapest defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.05

MTK Budapest attack 2.90 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

15%

level

18%

MTK Budapest scores more

66%

MTK Budapest at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "MTK Budapest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Z. Stieber

28'

N. Kenesei

87'

R. Polievka

IMT

MTK

Manager: Bojan Krulj

Manager: Dávid Horváth