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IMT Novi Beograd vs Krylia Sovetov — Friendlies Clubs 2026

IMT Novi Beograd
IMT Novi Beograd
CANC
14:00
Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
1/23/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd24%
×Draw20%
Krylia Sovetov56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IMT Novi Beograd
1.42
Krylia Sovetov
2.25

Krylia Sovetov creates 58% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd
0.71
Krylia Sovetov
2.63

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd
1.86
Krylia Sovetov
2.13

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par
Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

Krylia Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw
44%
IMT Novi Beograd or Krylia Sovetov
80%
Draw or Krylia Sovetov
76%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+
10%
Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals
76%
IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals
41%
IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals
17%
Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
89%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
65%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
30%
Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 2.63, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 0.71 + Krylia Sovetov defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Krylia Sovetov attack 2.63 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more
24%
level
20%
Krylia Sovetov scores more
56%

Krylia Sovetov at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

IMT Novi Beograd face Krylia Sovetov (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with IMT Novi Beograd hosting Krylia Sovetov. Match starts January 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.