IMT Novi Beograd 2–2 FK Vozdovac: Result & Stats

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FK Vozdovac

8/6/2023

Super Liga · Round 2Stadion Event Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd45%

×Draw26%

FK Vozdovac29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchFK Vozdovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.08

IMT Novi Beograd

1.43

FK Vozdovac

1.08

IMT Novi Beograd creates 32% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 109 away

1.21

creates per match

0.89

1.28

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.21

FK Vozdovac

0.89

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.28

FK Vozdovac

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

FK Vozdovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

FK Vozdovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

71%

IMT Novi Beograd or FK Vozdovac

74%

Draw or FK Vozdovac

55%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

22%

FK Vozdovac wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

76%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

42%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

17%

FK Vozdovac 1+ goals

66%

FK Vozdovac 2+ goals

29%

FK Vozdovac 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

61%

FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

FK Vozdovac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.21 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.43

FK Vozdovac attack 0.89 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

45%

level

26%

FK Vozdovac scores more

29%

IMT Novi Beograd at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff