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IMT Novi Beograd vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Friendlies Clubs 2026

IMT Novi Beograd
IMT Novi Beograd
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
1/19/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd16%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Makhachkala58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IMT Novi Beograd
0.70
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.58

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 126% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd
0.71
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.30

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd
1.86
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.70

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–116%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw
42%
IMT Novi Beograd or Dinamo Makhachkala
75%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
84%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+
4%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals
50%
IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals
16%
IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals
3%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
79%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
47%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
22%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 0.71 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.70

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.30 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more
16%
level
25%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
58%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

IMT
Dinamo
Bojan Krulj
Manager: Bojan Krulj
Hasan Bidzhiev
Manager: Hasan Bidzhiev

Friendlies Clubs: IMT Novi Beograd 0–2 Dinamo Makhachkala

Dinamo Makhachkala beat IMT Novi Beograd 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 19, 2026.