IMT Novi Beograd 1–1 Backa: Result & Stats

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Backa

11/5/2021

Prva Liga · Round 16Stadion FK IMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd56%

×Draw25%

Backa19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchBacka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.81

IMT Novi Beograd

1.61

Backa

0.81

IMT Novi Beograd creates 99% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 34 away

1.93

creates per match

0.74

0.89

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.93

Backa

0.74

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

0.89

Backa

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

Backa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

81%

IMT Novi Beograd or Backa

75%

Draw or Backa

44%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

30%

Backa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

80%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

48%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

22%

Backa 1+ goals

56%

Backa 2+ goals

19%

Backa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

75%

Backa (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.89 · 54 matches

Backa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.93 + Backa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.61

Backa attack 0.74 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

56%

level

25%

Backa scores more

19%

IMT Novi Beograd at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff