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IMT Novi Beograd vs Akhmat — Friendlies Clubs 2026

IMT Novi Beograd
IMT Novi Beograd
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Akhmat
Akhmat
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd22%
×Draw25%
Akhmat52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IMT Novi Beograd
0.92
Akhmat
1.56

Akhmat creates 70% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd
0.71
Akhmat
1.25

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd
1.86
Akhmat
1.13

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par
Akhmat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

Akhmat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw
48%
IMT Novi Beograd or Akhmat
75%
Draw or Akhmat
78%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+
8%
Akhmat wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals
60%
IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals
23%
IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals
7%
Akhmat 1+ goals
79%
Akhmat 2+ goals
46%
Akhmat 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
30%
Akhmat (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Akhmat away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 0.71 + Akhmat defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.92

Akhmat attack 1.25 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more
22%
level
25%
Akhmat scores more
52%

Akhmat at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Akhmat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

IMT
Akhmat
Zoran Vasiljevic
Manager: Zoran Vasiljevic
Stanislav Cherchesov
Manager: Stanislav Cherchesov

Match Recap: IMT Novi Beograd vs Akhmat

Akhmat beat IMT Novi Beograd 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.