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Imst vs Wolfurt — Regionalliga - West 2018

Imst
Imst
FT
6 – 5
HT: 3 – 1
Wolfurt
Wolfurt
11/4/2023Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 15Velly Arena Imst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Imst64%
×Draw18%
Wolfurt18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imst
2.48
Wolfurt
1.25

Imst creates 98% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 51 away

creates per match

Imst
2.39
Wolfurt
1.47

allows per match

Imst
1.04
Wolfurt
2.57

finishing

Imst+0.00on par
Wolfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imst ↓

Wolfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Imst or draw
82%
Imst or Wolfurt
82%
Draw or Wolfurt
36%

Winning margin

Imst wins by 2+
42%
Wolfurt wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Imst 1+ goals
92%
Imst 2+ goals
70%
Imst 3+ goals
44%
Wolfurt 1+ goals
71%
Wolfurt 2+ goals
36%
Wolfurt 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Imst (draw refunded)
78%
Wolfurt (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imst at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.04 · 46 matches

Wolfurt away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imst attack 2.39 + Wolfurt defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.48

Wolfurt attack 1.47 + Imst defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Imst scores more
64%
level
18%
Wolfurt scores more
18%

Imst at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Imst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: Imst 6–5 Wolfurt

Imst beat Wolfurt 6-5 in Regionalliga - West on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Velly Arena Imst in Imst.