Imst 1–3 Dornbirner SV: Result & Stats

Imst

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Dornbirner SV

8/4/2023

Regionalliga - West · West - 2Velly Arena Imst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Imst60%

×Draw20%

Dornbirner SV21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ImstExpected goals in this matchDornbirner SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.31

Imst

2.32

Dornbirner SV

1.31

Imst creates 77% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 51 away

2.39

creates per match

1.57

1.04

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Imst

2.39

Dornbirner SV

1.57

allows per match

Imst

1.04

Dornbirner SV

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Imst+0.00on par

Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imst ↓

Dornbirner SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Imst or draw

79%

Imst or Dornbirner SV

80%

Draw or Dornbirner SV

40%

Winning margin

Imst wins by 2+

38%

Dornbirner SV wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Imst 1+ goals

90%

Imst 2+ goals

67%

Imst 3+ goals

40%

Dornbirner SV 1+ goals

73%

Dornbirner SV 2+ goals

38%

Dornbirner SV 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Imst (draw refunded)

74%

Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imst at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.04 · 46 matches

Dornbirner SV away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imst attack 2.39 + Dornbirner SV defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.32

Dornbirner SV attack 1.57 + Imst defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Imst scores more

60%

level

20%

Dornbirner SV scores more

21%

Imst at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Imst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff