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Imperatriz vs Trem — Serie D 2026

Imperatriz
Imperatriz
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Trem
Trem
Fidel 76'
Ronny Taperacu 47'
Ivan 13', 5'
5/10/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Imperatriz56%
×Draw24%
Trem20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imperatriz
1.75
Trem
0.94

Imperatriz creates 86% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 36 away

creates per match

Imperatriz
1.66
Trem
1.17

allows per match

Imperatriz
0.72
Trem
1.83

finishing

Imperatriz+0.00on par
Trem+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imperatriz ↓

Trem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Imperatriz or draw
80%
Imperatriz or Trem
76%
Draw or Trem
44%

Winning margin

Imperatriz wins by 2+
32%
Trem wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Imperatriz 1+ goals
83%
Imperatriz 2+ goals
52%
Imperatriz 3+ goals
25%
Trem 1+ goals
61%
Trem 2+ goals
24%
Trem 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Imperatriz (draw refunded)
74%
Trem (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imperatriz at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.72 · 29 matches

Trem away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imperatriz attack 1.66 + Trem defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Trem attack 1.17 + Imperatriz defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Imperatriz scores more
56%
level
24%
Trem scores more
20%

Imperatriz at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Imperatriz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Ivan
13'
Ivan
47'
Ronny Taperacu
76'
Fidel
Imperatriz
Trem
Marcio Cezilo Arantes
Manager: Marcio Cezilo Arantes
Sandro Macapá
Manager: Sandro Macapá

Match Recap: Imperatriz vs Trem

Imperatriz beat Trem 4-0 in Serie D on May 10, 2026.

Goals: Ivan (5', 13'), Ronny Taperacu (47'), Fidel (76').