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Imperatriz vs Palmas — Serie D 2018

Imperatriz
Imperatriz
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Palmas
Palmas
6/6/2021Serie DSerie D · Round 1Estádio Frei Epifânio D'Abadia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Imperatriz63%
×Draw21%
Palmas16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imperatriz
1.98
Palmas
0.89

Imperatriz creates 122% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 17 away

creates per match

Imperatriz
1.66
Palmas
1.06

allows per match

Imperatriz
0.72
Palmas
2.29

finishing

Imperatriz+0.00on par
Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imperatriz ↓

Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Imperatriz or draw
84%
Imperatriz or Palmas
79%
Draw or Palmas
37%

Winning margin

Imperatriz wins by 2+
38%
Palmas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Imperatriz 1+ goals
86%
Imperatriz 2+ goals
59%
Imperatriz 3+ goals
31%
Palmas 1+ goals
59%
Palmas 2+ goals
22%
Palmas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Imperatriz (draw refunded)
79%
Palmas (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imperatriz at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.72 · 29 matches

Palmas away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imperatriz attack 1.66 + Palmas defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.98

Palmas attack 1.06 + Imperatriz defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Imperatriz scores more
63%
level
21%
Palmas scores more
16%

Imperatriz at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Imperatriz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imperatriz vs Palmas

Imperatriz beat Palmas 3-2 in Serie D on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Frei Epifânio D'Abadia in Imperatriz, Maranhão.