Imperatriz 1–3 ABC: Result & Stats

Imperatriz

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

ABC

Joel Araujo 12'

Luiz Fernando 45'

Bruno Leite 9', 3'

4/16/2026

Copa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Imperatriz39%

×Draw28%

ABC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ImperatrizExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.12

Imperatriz

1.23

ABC

1.12

Imperatriz creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

1.00

creates per match

0.95

1.29

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Imperatriz

1.00

ABC

0.95

allows per match

Imperatriz

1.29

ABC

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Imperatriz+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imperatriz ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Imperatriz or draw

67%

Imperatriz or ABC

72%

Draw or ABC

61%

Winning margin

Imperatriz wins by 2+

17%

ABC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Imperatriz 1+ goals

71%

Imperatriz 2+ goals

35%

Imperatriz 3+ goals

13%

ABC 1+ goals

67%

ABC 2+ goals

31%

ABC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Imperatriz (draw refunded)

54%

ABC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imperatriz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

ABC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imperatriz attack 1.00 + ABC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

ABC attack 0.95 + Imperatriz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Imperatriz scores more

39%

level

28%

ABC scores more

33%

Imperatriz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Imperatriz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

6'

9'

12'

25'

33'

33'

41'

Gleidson← Felipe Macena

45'

Luiz Fernando

46'

Vivico← M. Trucco

46'

M. Sabia← Rian

46'

Palominha← Joel Araujo

54'

Geilson

68'

David Lopes← Wyldson

70'

Gleidson

71'

Lima← Joao Pedro

72'

Anderson Brito

72'

Randerson← Geilson

74'

75'

Wellington Carvalho

Imperatriz

ABC

1

2

3

4

6

15

8

▼

Geilson

10

▼

Pedro

18

⚽

Fernando

9

Bahia

99

⚽2

Leite

1

Wellingto

26

▼

Trucco

13

Taperacu

3

Sena

6

▼

Wyldson

15

▼

Macena

5

Bigobel

20

Silva

10

▼

Rian

9

⚽

▼

Araujo

17

Brito

41'▲Gleidson←▼Felipe Macena

46'▲Vivico←▼M. Trucco

46'▲M. Sabia←▼Rian

46'▲Palominha←▼Joel Araujo

68'▲David Lopes←▼Wyldson

Imperatriz substitutes

12Conceicao2Vivico4Potiguar16Lopes14Gleidson8Victor22Doda19Sabia18Fidel11Sena7Palominha25Ivan

71'▲Lima←▼Joao Pedro

72'▲Randerson←▼Geilson

ABC substitutes

12Castro13Victor16Schneider17Brunao28Esquerdinha20Oliveira21Lima22Randerson23Tenorio