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Imolese U19 vs Ternana U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Imolese U19
Imolese U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ternana U19
Ternana U19
1/14/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 14Stadio Bacchilega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Imolese U1949%
×Draw27%
Ternana U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imolese U19
1.45
Ternana U19
0.94

Imolese U19 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 72 away

creates per match

Imolese U19
1.00
Ternana U19
0.94

allows per match

Imolese U19
0.93
Ternana U19
1.90

finishing

Imolese U19+0.00on par
Ternana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imolese U19 ↓

Ternana U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Imolese U19 or draw
76%
Imolese U19 or Ternana U19
73%
Draw or Ternana U19
51%

Winning margin

Imolese U19 wins by 2+
24%
Ternana U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Imolese U19 1+ goals
77%
Imolese U19 2+ goals
42%
Imolese U19 3+ goals
18%
Ternana U19 1+ goals
61%
Ternana U19 2+ goals
24%
Ternana U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Imolese U19 (draw refunded)
67%
Ternana U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imolese U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Ternana U19 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.90 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imolese U19 attack 1.00 + Ternana U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ternana U19 attack 0.94 + Imolese U19 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Imolese U19 scores more
49%
level
27%
Ternana U19 scores more
24%

Imolese U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Imolese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imolese U19 vs Ternana U19

Imolese U19 beat Ternana U19 2-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on January 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Bacchilega in Imola.