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Imolese U19 vs Ascoli U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Imolese U19
Imolese U19
FT
0 – 1
Ascoli U19
Ascoli U19
3/4/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 21Stadio Bacchilega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Imolese U1938%
×Draw27%
Ascoli U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imolese U19
1.29
Ascoli U19
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

creates per match

Imolese U19
1.00
Ascoli U19
1.48

allows per match

Imolese U19
0.93
Ascoli U19
1.58

finishing

Imolese U19+0.00on par
Ascoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imolese U19 ↓

Ascoli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Imolese U19 or draw
65%
Imolese U19 or Ascoli U19
73%
Draw or Ascoli U19
62%

Winning margin

Imolese U19 wins by 2+
17%
Ascoli U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Imolese U19 1+ goals
72%
Imolese U19 2+ goals
37%
Imolese U19 3+ goals
14%
Ascoli U19 1+ goals
70%
Ascoli U19 2+ goals
34%
Ascoli U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Imolese U19 (draw refunded)
53%
Ascoli U19 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imolese U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Ascoli U19 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imolese U19 attack 1.00 + Ascoli U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ascoli U19 attack 1.48 + Imolese U19 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Imolese U19 scores more
38%
level
27%
Ascoli U19 scores more
35%

Imolese U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Imolese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Imolese U19 0–1 Ascoli U19

Ascoli U19 beat Imolese U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Bacchilega in Imola.