Imisli FK 0–0 Şamaxı FK: Result & Stats

Imisli FK

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Şamaxı FK

2/22/2026

Premyer Liqa · Round 21Quba OIK stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Imisli FK27%

×Draw31%

Şamaxı FK42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Imisli FKExpected goals in this matchŞamaxı FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.09

Imisli FK

0.82

Şamaxı FK

1.09

Şamaxı FK creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 20 away

0.53

creates per match

0.85

1.33

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Imisli FK

0.53

Şamaxı FK

0.85

allows per match

Imisli FK

1.33

Şamaxı FK

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Imisli FK+0.00on par

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imisli FK ↓

Şamaxı FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–116%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Imisli FK or draw

58%

Imisli FK or Şamaxı FK

69%

Draw or Şamaxı FK

73%

Winning margin

Imisli FK wins by 2+

9%

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Imisli FK 1+ goals

56%

Imisli FK 2+ goals

20%

Imisli FK 3+ goals

5%

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals

66%

Şamaxı FK 2+ goals

30%

Şamaxı FK 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Imisli FK (draw refunded)

40%

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imisli FK at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Şamaxı FK away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imisli FK attack 0.53 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.82

Şamaxı FK attack 0.85 + Imisli FK defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Imisli FK scores more

27%

level

31%

Şamaxı FK scores more

42%

Şamaxı FK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Şamaxı FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

A. Msanga

45'

D. Balau

46'

E. Adilkhanov← D. Balau

62'

A. Salahly

65'

O. Mammadov

69'

A. Tircoveanu← A. Msanga

80'

A. Agazada← I. Inqilably

89'

K. Rossi

Imisli

Şamaxı

1

5

2

97

82

9

13

11

▼

Balau

4

Cezar

44

Santos

8

▼

Msanga

33

Sinenko

19

Salahly

5

▼

94

10

29

14

23

79

17

7

Manager: Casquilha

80'▲A. Agazada←▼I. Inqilably

Imisli FK substitutes

1Quliyev77Rahimzada21Agazada97Mahmudov3Yusifli30Mursalli20Huseynov

Manager: Aykhan Abbasov

46'▲E. Adilkhanov←▼D. Balau

69'▲A. Tircoveanu←▼A. Msanga

Şamaxı FK substitutes

62Seyiahmadov99Hashimov17Maharramli80Ismayilov21Ismayilov27Suleymanov7Adilkhanov48Muradov77Mehraliyev90Mansumov10Tircoveanu19Shuaibu