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Imisli FK vs İrəvan — Birinci Dasta 2019

Imisli FK
Imisli FK
FT
3 – 0
İrəvan
İrəvan
10/18/2023Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 5Heydər Əliyev adına şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Imisli FK48%
×Draw26%
İrəvan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imisli FK
1.46
İrəvan
1.00

Imisli FK creates 46% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 14 away

creates per match

Imisli FK
1.29
İrəvan
0.93

allows per match

Imisli FK
1.07
İrəvan
1.64

finishing

Imisli FK+0.00on par
İrəvan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imisli FK ↓

İrəvan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Imisli FK or draw
74%
Imisli FK or İrəvan
74%
Draw or İrəvan
52%

Winning margin

Imisli FK wins by 2+
24%
İrəvan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Imisli FK 1+ goals
77%
Imisli FK 2+ goals
43%
Imisli FK 3+ goals
18%
İrəvan 1+ goals
63%
İrəvan 2+ goals
26%
İrəvan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Imisli FK (draw refunded)
65%
İrəvan (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imisli FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

İrəvan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imisli FK attack 1.29 + İrəvan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

İrəvan attack 0.93 + Imisli FK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Imisli FK scores more
48%
level
26%
İrəvan scores more
26%

Imisli FK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Imisli FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: Imisli FK 3–0 İrəvan

Imisli FK beat İrəvan 3-0 in Birinci Dasta on October 18, 2023.

The match was played at Heydər Əliyev adına şəhər stadionu in İmişli.