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Imisli FK vs Araz Saatlı — Birinci Dasta 2019

Imisli FK
Imisli FK
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Araz Saatlı
Araz Saatlı
3/13/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 18Heydər Əliyev adına şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Imisli FK69%
×Draw17%
Araz Saatlı14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imisli FK
2.46
Araz Saatlı
1.00

Imisli FK creates 146% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 13 away

creates per match

Imisli FK
1.29
Araz Saatlı
0.92

allows per match

Imisli FK
1.07
Araz Saatlı
3.62

finishing

Imisli FK+0.00on par
Araz Saatlı+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imisli FK ↓

Araz Saatlı →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Imisli FK or draw
86%
Imisli FK or Araz Saatlı
83%
Draw or Araz Saatlı
31%

Winning margin

Imisli FK wins by 2+
47%
Araz Saatlı wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Imisli FK 1+ goals
91%
Imisli FK 2+ goals
70%
Imisli FK 3+ goals
44%
Araz Saatlı 1+ goals
63%
Araz Saatlı 2+ goals
26%
Araz Saatlı 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Imisli FK (draw refunded)
83%
Araz Saatlı (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imisli FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

Araz Saatlı away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imisli FK attack 1.29 + Araz Saatlı defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.46

Araz Saatlı attack 0.92 + Imisli FK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Imisli FK scores more
69%
level
17%
Araz Saatlı scores more
14%

Imisli FK at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Imisli FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: Imisli FK 4–1 Araz Saatlı

Imisli FK beat Araz Saatlı 4-1 in Birinci Dasta on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Heydər Əliyev adına şəhər stadionu in İmişli.