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Imereti vs WIT Georgia II — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Imereti
Imereti
FT
0 – 0
WIT Georgia II
WIT Georgia II
8/22/2020David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Imereti35%
×Draw33%
WIT Georgia II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imereti
0.92
WIT Georgia II
0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Imereti
0.33
WIT Georgia II
0.75

allows per match

Imereti
1.00
WIT Georgia II
1.50

finishing

Imereti+0.00on par
WIT Georgia II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imereti ↓

WIT Georgia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Imereti or draw
68%
Imereti or WIT Georgia II
67%
Draw or WIT Georgia II
65%

Winning margin

Imereti wins by 2+
12%
WIT Georgia II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Imereti 1+ goals
60%
Imereti 2+ goals
23%
Imereti 3+ goals
7%
WIT Georgia II 1+ goals
59%
WIT Georgia II 2+ goals
22%
WIT Georgia II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Imereti (draw refunded)
52%
WIT Georgia II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imereti at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

WIT Georgia II away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imereti attack 0.33 + WIT Georgia II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

WIT Georgia II attack 0.75 + Imereti defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Imereti scores more
35%
level
33%
WIT Georgia II scores more
32%

Imereti at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Imereti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: Imereti 0–0 WIT Georgia II

Imereti and WIT Georgia II drew 0-0 in David Kipiani Cup on August 22, 2020.