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Imereti vs Dinamo Tbilisi II — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Imereti
Imereti
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Tbilisi II
Dinamo Tbilisi II
11/12/2013Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Group A - 11Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Imereti29%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Tbilisi II47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imereti
1.31
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.71

Dinamo Tbilisi II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 61 away

creates per match

Imereti
0.67
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.43

allows per match

Imereti
2.00
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.95

finishing

Imereti+0.00on par
Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imereti ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Imereti or draw
53%
Imereti or Dinamo Tbilisi II
76%
Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi II
71%

Winning margin

Imereti wins by 2+
13%
Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Imereti 1+ goals
73%
Imereti 2+ goals
38%
Imereti 3+ goals
14%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals
82%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals
51%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Imereti (draw refunded)
39%
Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imereti at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.95 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imereti attack 0.67 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.43 + Imereti defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Imereti scores more
29%
level
24%
Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more
47%

Dinamo Tbilisi II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imereti vs Dinamo Tbilisi II

Dinamo Tbilisi II beat Imereti 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 12, 2013.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni in Khoni.