Imereti 1–2 Dila: Result & Stats

Imereti

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dila

G. Tsagareishvili 53' (pen)

T. Gorgiashvili 40'

N. Spanderashvili 35'

8/27/2020

David Kipiani Cup · 2nd RoundStadioni 26 Maisi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Imereti18%

×Draw24%

Dila58%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ImeretiExpected goals in this matchDila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.70

Imereti

0.82

Dila

1.70

Dila creates 107% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

0.33

creates per match

2.40

1.00

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Imereti

0.33

Dila

2.40

allows per match

Imereti

1.00

Dila

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Imereti+0.00on par

Dila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imereti ↓

Dila →

0–08%

0–114%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Imereti or draw

42%

Imereti or Dila

76%

Draw or Dila

82%

Winning margin

Imereti wins by 2+

Dila wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Imereti 1+ goals

56%

Imereti 2+ goals

20%

Imereti 3+ goals

Dila 1+ goals

82%

Dila 2+ goals

51%

Dila 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Imereti (draw refunded)

24%

Dila (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Imereti at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Dila away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Imereti attack 0.33 + Dila defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.82

Dila attack 2.40 + Imereti defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Imereti scores more

18%

level

24%

Dila scores more

58%

Dila at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

N. Spanderashvili

40'

T. Gorgiashvili

46'

F. Madinga← A. Obiero

46'

R. Tchanturia← I. Lekvtadze

53'

G. TsagareishviliPenalty

55'

T. Chachua← G. Tsagareishvili

64'

E. Kajaia← K. Tsikalanovi

81'

S. Tsagareishvili← B. Dzigua

Imereti

Dila

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Tsagareis

Manager: T. Matcharadze

55'▲T. Chachua←▼G. Tsagareishvili

64'▲E. Kajaia←▼K. Tsikalanovi

81'▲S. Tsagareishvili←▼B. Dzigua

Imereti substitutes

ChachuaKajaiaTsagareishviliKukhalashviliBerdzenadzeJanelidze

Manager: G. Nemsadze

46'▲F. Madinga←▼A. Obiero

46'▲R. Tchanturia←▼I. Lekvtadze

Dila substitutes

MadingaTchanturiaGugeshashvili

David Kipiani Cup: Imereti 1–2 Dila

Dila beat Imereti 2-1 in David Kipiani Cup on August 27, 2020.

Goals: N. Spanderashvili (35'), T. Gorgiashvili (40'), G. Tsagareishvili (53' pen).

The match was played at Stadioni 26 Maisi in Tskhaltubo.

Imereti vs Dila — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

David Kipiani Cup: Imereti 1–2 Dila