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Imeľ vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa — 3. liga - West 2020

Imeľ
Imeľ
CANC
14:30
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
5/23/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Imeľ41%
×Draw25%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imeľ
1.48
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.30

Imeľ creates 14% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 85 away

creates per match

Imeľ
1.25
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.31

allows per match

Imeľ
1.29
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.71

finishing

Imeľ+0.00on par
Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imeľ ↓

Slovan Duslo Šaľa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Imeľ or draw
67%
Imeľ or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
75%
Draw or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
59%

Winning margin

Imeľ wins by 2+
20%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Imeľ 1+ goals
77%
Imeľ 2+ goals
43%
Imeľ 3+ goals
19%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
73%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
37%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Imeľ (draw refunded)
55%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imeľ at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imeľ attack 1.25 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 1.31 + Imeľ defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Imeľ scores more
41%
level
25%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
33%

Imeľ at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Imeľ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Imeľ host Slovan Duslo Šaľa

May 23, 2021: Imeľ take on Slovan Duslo Šaľa in 3. liga - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.