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Imeľ vs Nové Mesto nad Váhom — 3. liga - West 2020

Imeľ
Imeľ
CANC
15:00
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
6/13/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Imeľ45%
×Draw26%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imeľ
1.50
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.18

Imeľ creates 27% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 54 away

creates per match

Imeľ
1.25
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.07

allows per match

Imeľ
1.29
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.76

finishing

Imeľ+0.00on par
Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imeľ ↓

Nové Mesto nad Váhom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Imeľ or draw
70%
Imeľ or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
74%
Draw or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
55%

Winning margin

Imeľ wins by 2+
22%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Imeľ 1+ goals
78%
Imeľ 2+ goals
44%
Imeľ 3+ goals
19%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals
69%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals
33%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Imeľ (draw refunded)
60%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imeľ at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imeľ attack 1.25 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.07 + Imeľ defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Imeľ scores more
45%
level
26%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more
30%

Imeľ at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Imeľ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Imeľ host Nové Mesto nad Váhom

June 13, 2021: Imeľ take on Nové Mesto nad Váhom in 3. liga - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.