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Imeľ vs Nitra — 3. liga - West 2020

Imeľ
Imeľ
FT
3 – 1
Nitra
Nitra
8/29/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 4Futbalový štadión TJ Imeľ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Imeľ54%
×Draw22%
Nitra24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imeľ
1.89
Nitra
1.18

Imeľ creates 60% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 17 away

creates per match

Imeľ
1.25
Nitra
1.06

allows per match

Imeľ
1.29
Nitra
2.53

finishing

Imeľ+0.00on par
Nitra+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imeľ ↓

Nitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Imeľ or draw
76%
Imeľ or Nitra
78%
Draw or Nitra
46%

Winning margin

Imeľ wins by 2+
31%
Nitra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Imeľ 1+ goals
85%
Imeľ 2+ goals
56%
Imeľ 3+ goals
29%
Nitra 1+ goals
69%
Nitra 2+ goals
33%
Nitra 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Imeľ (draw refunded)
69%
Nitra (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imeľ at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Nitra away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imeľ attack 1.25 + Nitra defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.89

Nitra attack 1.06 + Imeľ defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Imeľ scores more
54%
level
22%
Nitra scores more
24%

Imeľ at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Imeľ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imeľ vs Nitra

Imeľ beat Nitra 3-1 in 3. liga - West on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión TJ Imeľ in Imeľ.