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Imeľ vs Malženice — 3. liga - West 2020

Imeľ
Imeľ
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malženice
Malženice
3/13/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 18Futbalový štadión TJ Imeľ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Imeľ31%
×Draw25%
Malženice43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imeľ
1.23
Malženice
1.49

Malženice creates 21% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 39 away

creates per match

Imeľ
1.25
Malženice
1.69

allows per match

Imeľ
1.29
Malženice
1.21

finishing

Imeľ+0.00on par
Malženice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imeľ ↓

Malženice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Imeľ or draw
57%
Imeľ or Malženice
75%
Draw or Malženice
69%

Winning margin

Imeľ wins by 2+
13%
Malženice wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Imeľ 1+ goals
71%
Imeľ 2+ goals
35%
Imeľ 3+ goals
13%
Malženice 1+ goals
77%
Malženice 2+ goals
44%
Malženice 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Imeľ (draw refunded)
42%
Malženice (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imeľ at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Malženice away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.21 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imeľ attack 1.25 + Malženice defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Malženice attack 1.69 + Imeľ defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Imeľ scores more
31%
level
25%
Malženice scores more
43%

Malženice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imeľ vs Malženice

Imeľ beat Malženice 1-0 in 3. liga - West on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión TJ Imeľ in Imeľ.