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Imeľ vs Kalná nad Hronom — 3. liga - West 2020

Imeľ
Imeľ
CANC
14:00
Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
4/25/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 22Futbalový štadión TJ Imeľ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Imeľ42%
×Draw26%
Kalná nad Hronom32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imeľ
1.43
Kalná nad Hronom
1.20

Imeľ creates 19% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 31 away

creates per match

Imeľ
1.25
Kalná nad Hronom
1.10

allows per match

Imeľ
1.29
Kalná nad Hronom
1.61

finishing

Imeľ+0.00on par
Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imeľ ↓

Kalná nad Hronom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Imeľ or draw
68%
Imeľ or Kalná nad Hronom
74%
Draw or Kalná nad Hronom
58%

Winning margin

Imeľ wins by 2+
20%
Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Imeľ 1+ goals
76%
Imeľ 2+ goals
42%
Imeľ 3+ goals
17%
Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
70%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
34%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Imeľ (draw refunded)
57%
Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imeľ at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Kalná nad Hronom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imeľ attack 1.25 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.10 + Imeľ defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Imeľ scores more
42%
level
26%
Kalná nad Hronom scores more
32%

Imeľ at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Imeľ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Imeľ vs Kalná nad Hronom — Match Preview

Imeľ face Kalná nad Hronom on April 25, 2021 in this 3. liga - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Imeľ host Kalná nad Hronom at Futbalový štadión TJ Imeľ.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.