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Imeľ vs Častkovce — 3. liga - West 2020

Imeľ
Imeľ
FT
0 – 1
Častkovce
Častkovce
9/13/20203. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 6Štadión ŠK Nesvady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Imeľ41%
×Draw25%
Častkovce34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imeľ
1.46
Častkovce
1.31

Imeľ creates 11% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 85 away

creates per match

Imeľ
1.25
Častkovce
1.32

allows per match

Imeľ
1.29
Častkovce
1.66

finishing

Imeľ+0.00on par
Častkovce+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imeľ ↓

Častkovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Imeľ or draw
66%
Imeľ or Častkovce
75%
Draw or Častkovce
59%

Winning margin

Imeľ wins by 2+
20%
Častkovce wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Imeľ 1+ goals
77%
Imeľ 2+ goals
43%
Imeľ 3+ goals
18%
Častkovce 1+ goals
73%
Častkovce 2+ goals
38%
Častkovce 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Imeľ (draw refunded)
55%
Častkovce (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imeľ at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Častkovce away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.66 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imeľ attack 1.25 + Častkovce defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Častkovce attack 1.32 + Imeľ defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Imeľ scores more
41%
level
25%
Častkovce scores more
34%

Imeľ at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Imeľ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imeľ vs Častkovce

Častkovce beat Imeľ 1-0 in 3. liga - West on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión ŠK Nesvady in Nesvady.