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Imbabura vs Puerto Quito — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Imbabura
Imbabura
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Puerto Quito
Puerto Quito
8/27/2022Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 24Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Imbabura48%
×Draw28%
Puerto Quito24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imbabura
1.36
Puerto Quito
0.88

Imbabura creates 55% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 85 away

creates per match

Imbabura
1.36
Puerto Quito
0.76

allows per match

Imbabura
1.00
Puerto Quito
1.36

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par
Puerto Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

Puerto Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw
76%
Imbabura or Puerto Quito
72%
Draw or Puerto Quito
52%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+
23%
Puerto Quito wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals
74%
Imbabura 2+ goals
39%
Imbabura 3+ goals
16%
Puerto Quito 1+ goals
59%
Puerto Quito 2+ goals
22%
Puerto Quito 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)
66%
Puerto Quito (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 55 matches

Puerto Quito away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.36 + Puerto Quito defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.36

Puerto Quito attack 0.76 + Imbabura defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Imbabura scores more
48%
level
28%
Puerto Quito scores more
24%

Imbabura at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Imbabura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imbabura vs Puerto Quito

Imbabura beat Puerto Quito 3-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.