Imbabura 0–1 Independiente del Valle

Imbabura

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente del Valle

R. López 57'

4/28/2024

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 10Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Imbabura29%

×Draw25%

Independiente del Valle46%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ImbaburaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.61

Imbabura

1.22

Independiente del Valle

1.61

Independiente del Valle creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 133 away

1.27

creates per match

1.56

1.67

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Imbabura

1.27

Independiente del Valle

1.56

allows per match

Imbabura

1.67

Independiente del Valle

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw

54%

Imbabura or Independiente del Valle

75%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

71%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+

12%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals

70%

Imbabura 2+ goals

34%

Imbabura 3+ goals

12%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

80%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

48%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)

38%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.27 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Imbabura defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Imbabura scores more

29%

level

25%

Independiente del Valle scores more

46%

Independiente del Valle at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

Rrenato Ibarra

Independiente del Valle · F

7.7

Match Events

25'

Edilson Alejandro Cabeza Almeida

40'

Michael Chala

43'

G. Coronel← M. Chalá

46'

M Arteaga← J. Alcivar

46'

P. Mercado← Romario Ibarra

46'

R. López← C. Zabala

57'

R. López↳ K. Páez

61'

L. Pantoja← D. Burbano

62'

K. Arroyo← Rrenato Ibarra

68'

J. Alcívar← M. Hoyos

69'

Erick Mendoza

72'

F. Presentado← F. Paz

72'

J. Guisamano← R. Caicedo

82'

Beder Caicedo

87'

R. Schunke← K. Páez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ImbaburaIndependiente

Overview

50%Possession50%

9Total Shots8

2Corners3

11Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots8

4On Target1

4Off Target6

1Blocked1

2Inside Box3

7Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

356Total Passes356

267Accurate Passes262

75%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0