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Imbabura vs Guayaquil — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Imbabura
Imbabura
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Guayaquil
Guayaquil
5/25/2023Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 11Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Imbabura49%
×Draw26%
Guayaquil25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imbabura
1.48
Guayaquil
0.96

Imbabura creates 54% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 54 away

creates per match

Imbabura
1.36
Guayaquil
0.91

allows per match

Imbabura
1.00
Guayaquil
1.59

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par
Guayaquil+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

Guayaquil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw
75%
Imbabura or Guayaquil
74%
Draw or Guayaquil
51%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+
25%
Guayaquil wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals
77%
Imbabura 2+ goals
43%
Imbabura 3+ goals
19%
Guayaquil 1+ goals
62%
Guayaquil 2+ goals
25%
Guayaquil 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)
67%
Guayaquil (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 55 matches

Guayaquil away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.59 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.36 + Guayaquil defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Guayaquil attack 0.91 + Imbabura defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Imbabura scores more
49%
level
26%
Guayaquil scores more
25%

Imbabura at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Imbabura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Imbabura 3–3 Guayaquil

Imbabura and Guayaquil drew 3-3 in Liga Pro Serie B on May 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.