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Imbabura vs El Nacional — Liga Pro 2026

Imbabura
Imbabura
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Nacional
El Nacional
9/28/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 8Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Imbabura37%
×Draw25%
El Nacional37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imbabura
1.39
El Nacional
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

creates per match

Imbabura
1.27
El Nacional
1.08

allows per match

Imbabura
1.67
El Nacional
1.51

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw
63%
Imbabura or El Nacional
75%
Draw or El Nacional
63%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+
17%
El Nacional wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals
75%
Imbabura 2+ goals
40%
Imbabura 3+ goals
16%
El Nacional 1+ goals
75%
El Nacional 2+ goals
40%
El Nacional 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)
50%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

El Nacional away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.27 + El Nacional defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

El Nacional attack 1.08 + Imbabura defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Imbabura scores more
37%
level
25%
El Nacional scores more
37%

Imbabura at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Imbabura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Imbabura 1 – 0 El Nacional

Imbabura beat El Nacional 1-0 in Liga Pro on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.