Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Imbabura vs Chacaritas — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Imbabura
Imbabura
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Chacaritas
Chacaritas
Unknown 90+2'
B. Carabali 29'
L. Pantoja 14'
A. Gonzalez 23'
10/30/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Relegation Round - 10Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Imbabura58%
×Draw25%
Chacaritas17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imbabura
1.61
Chacaritas
0.73

Imbabura creates 121% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

creates per match

Imbabura
1.05
Chacaritas
0.57

allows per match

Imbabura
0.89
Chacaritas
2.17

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par
Chacaritas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

Chacaritas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw
83%
Imbabura or Chacaritas
75%
Draw or Chacaritas
42%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+
32%
Chacaritas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals
80%
Imbabura 2+ goals
48%
Imbabura 3+ goals
22%
Chacaritas 1+ goals
52%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
17%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)
78%
Chacaritas (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Chacaritas away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.05 + Chacaritas defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.61

Chacaritas attack 0.57 + Imbabura defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Imbabura scores more
58%
level
25%
Chacaritas scores more
17%

Imbabura at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Imbabura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
L. Pantoja
23'
A. Gonzalez
29'
B. Carabali
67'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imbabura vs Chacaritas

Imbabura beat Chacaritas 3-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 30, 2025.

Goals: L. Pantoja (14'), A. Gonzalez (23'), B. Carabali (29'), ? (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.