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Imbabura vs Barcelona SC — Liga Pro 2026

Imbabura
Imbabura
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC
8/4/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 1Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Imbabura31%
×Draw25%
Barcelona SC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imbabura
1.23
Barcelona SC
1.50

Barcelona SC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 133 away

creates per match

Imbabura
1.27
Barcelona SC
1.34

allows per match

Imbabura
1.67
Barcelona SC
1.18

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par
Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

Barcelona SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw
57%
Imbabura or Barcelona SC
75%
Draw or Barcelona SC
69%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+
13%
Barcelona SC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals
71%
Imbabura 2+ goals
35%
Imbabura 3+ goals
13%
Barcelona SC 1+ goals
78%
Barcelona SC 2+ goals
44%
Barcelona SC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)
42%
Barcelona SC (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.27 + Barcelona SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Barcelona SC attack 1.34 + Imbabura defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Imbabura scores more
31%
level
25%
Barcelona SC scores more
43%

Barcelona SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imbabura vs Barcelona SC

Barcelona SC beat Imbabura 3-1 in Liga Pro on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.