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Imbabura vs Atlético Vinotinto — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Imbabura
Imbabura
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Vinotinto
Atlético Vinotinto
L. Pantoja 32'
7/24/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 19Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Imbabura43%
×Draw30%
Atlético Vinotinto26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imbabura
1.15
Atlético Vinotinto
0.83

Imbabura creates 39% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

creates per match

Imbabura
1.10
Atlético Vinotinto
0.81

allows per match

Imbabura
0.86
Atlético Vinotinto
1.19

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par
Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

Atlético Vinotinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw
74%
Imbabura or Atlético Vinotinto
70%
Draw or Atlético Vinotinto
57%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+
18%
Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals
68%
Imbabura 2+ goals
32%
Imbabura 3+ goals
11%
Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals
20%
Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)
62%
Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Atlético Vinotinto away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.10 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Atlético Vinotinto attack 0.81 + Imbabura defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Imbabura scores more
43%
level
30%
Atlético Vinotinto scores more
26%

Imbabura at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Imbabura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
L. Pantoja
Imbabura
Atlético
L. Espinel
Manager: L. Espinel
L. Soler
Manager: L. Soler

Match Recap: Imbabura vs Atlético Vinotinto

Imbabura beat Atlético Vinotinto 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on July 24, 2025.

Goals: L. Pantoja (32').

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.