Imbabura 2–1 9 de Octubre: Result & Stats

Imbabura

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

9 de Octubre

O. Pepinos 83'

L. Espinoza 12'

R. Córdoba 35' (pen)

8/16/2023

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 25Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Imbabura39%

×Draw31%

9 de Octubre30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ImbaburaExpected goals in this match9 de Octubre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.89

Imbabura

1.07

9 de Octubre

0.89

Imbabura creates 20% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 43 away

1.09

creates per match

0.91

0.86

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Imbabura

1.09

9 de Octubre

0.91

allows per match

Imbabura

0.86

9 de Octubre

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par

9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

9 de Octubre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw

70%

Imbabura or 9 de Octubre

69%

Draw or 9 de Octubre

61%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+

16%

9 de Octubre wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals

66%

Imbabura 2+ goals

29%

Imbabura 3+ goals

9%

9 de Octubre 1+ goals

59%

9 de Octubre 2+ goals

22%

9 de Octubre 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)

57%

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

9 de Octubre away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.09 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.07

9 de Octubre attack 0.91 + Imbabura defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Imbabura scores more

39%

level

31%

9 de Octubre scores more

30%

Imbabura at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Imbabura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

L. Espinoza

31'

M. Valero

35'

R. CórdobaPenalty

83'

O. Pepinos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff