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Imbabura vs 22 de Julio — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Imbabura
Imbabura
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
22 de Julio
22 de Julio
C. Benalcazar 82'
A. Castro 8'
9/27/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Relegation Round - 5Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Imbabura62%
×Draw23%
22 de Julio15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imbabura
1.73
22 de Julio
0.71

Imbabura creates 144% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

creates per match

Imbabura
1.10
22 de Julio
0.57

allows per match

Imbabura
0.86
22 de Julio
2.35

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par
22 de Julio+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

22 de Julio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw
85%
Imbabura or 22 de Julio
77%
Draw or 22 de Julio
38%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+
35%
22 de Julio wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals
82%
Imbabura 2+ goals
52%
Imbabura 3+ goals
25%
22 de Julio 1+ goals
51%
22 de Julio 2+ goals
16%
22 de Julio 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)
81%
22 de Julio (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

22 de Julio away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.10 + 22 de Julio defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.73

22 de Julio attack 0.57 + Imbabura defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Imbabura scores more
62%
level
23%
22 de Julio scores more
15%

Imbabura at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Imbabura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Castro
82'
C. Benalcazar
Imbabura
22
L. Espinel
Manager: L. Espinel
E. Valencia
Manager: E. Valencia

Match Recap: Imbabura vs 22 de Julio

Imbabura and 22 de Julio drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 27, 2025.

Goals: A. Castro (8'), C. Benalcazar (82').

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.