Imabari 0–1 Tokushima Vortis: Result & Stats

Imabari

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tokushima Vortis

5/31/2025

J2 League · Round 18Arigato Service Dream

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Imabari33%

×Draw28%

Tokushima Vortis39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ImabariExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.24

Imabari

1.10

Tokushima Vortis

1.24

Tokushima Vortis creates 13% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 147 away

1.19

creates per match

1.19

1.29

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Imabari

1.19

Tokushima Vortis

1.19

allows per match

Imabari

1.29

Tokushima Vortis

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Imabari+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imabari ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Imabari or draw

61%

Imabari or Tokushima Vortis

72%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

67%

Winning margin

Imabari wins by 2+

13%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Imabari 1+ goals

67%

Imabari 2+ goals

30%

Imabari 3+ goals

10%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

71%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

35%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Imabari (draw refunded)

45%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imabari at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imabari attack 1.19 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Imabari defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Imabari scores more

33%

level

28%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

39%

Tokushima Vortis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff