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Ilz vs Lebring — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Ilz
Ilz
FT
1 – 3
Lebring
Lebring
3/14/2025Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 17Pfeifer Real Arena Ilz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Ilz44%
×Draw22%
Lebring34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilz
1.92
Lebring
1.69

Ilz creates 14% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 88 away

creates per match

Ilz
1.91
Lebring
1.74

allows per match

Ilz
1.63
Lebring
1.93

finishing

Ilz+0.00on par
Lebring+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilz ↓

Lebring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ilz or draw
66%
Ilz or Lebring
78%
Draw or Lebring
56%

Winning margin

Ilz wins by 2+
24%
Lebring wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ilz 1+ goals
85%
Ilz 2+ goals
57%
Ilz 3+ goals
30%
Lebring 1+ goals
82%
Lebring 2+ goals
50%
Lebring 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ilz (draw refunded)
56%
Lebring (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilz at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.63 · 88 matches

Lebring away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.93 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilz attack 1.91 + Lebring defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.92

Lebring attack 1.74 + Ilz defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ilz scores more
44%
level
22%
Lebring scores more
34%

Ilz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ilz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ilz 1 – 3 Lebring

Lebring beat Ilz 3-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on March 14, 2025.

The match was played at Pfeifer Real Arena Ilz in Ilz.